[SMM Original] Weekly Review of Solar Cells: Price Collapse Continues, Signals of Anti-rollover Strengthen

1. Price

For P-type cells, the price of high-efficiency PERC 182 solar cells ranges from 0.265 to 0.27 yuan/W, marking a 5.96% decline from early June. Domestic demand is minimal, with all orders being export orders. The market operating rate is extremely low, and producers start or stop production lines based on orders. For N-type cells, firstly, for TOPCon high-efficiency solar cells, the transaction range for 183N is 0.225-0.23 yuan/W, for 210RN it is 0.24-0.25 yuan/W, and for 210N it is also 0.24-0.25 yuan/W. Secondly, for HJT solar cells, the mainstream quotation for HJT 30% silver-clad copper (with 25% or higher efficiency) is 0.35-0.36 yuan/W, continuing to hold steady recently.

2. Commentary

Under the pressure of destocking at month-end, TOPCon solar cell prices have "slid down the slope," accelerating their decline towards the bottom. According to the latest data, the current average prices of 183N/210N/210RN have fallen by 0.007/0.008/0.012 yuan respectively compared to last Thursday, corresponding to a WoW decline of 3.0%/3.2%/4.6%, indicating a significant expansion in the downward trend. Currently, the inventory levels of export-oriented producers remain at around 10 days. Against the backdrop of persistent inventory pressure, cell producers continue to offer concessions to compete for increasingly shrinking orders, further weakening their bargaining power. Due to differences in order structures and customer quality among enterprises, inventory pressures also exhibit a differentiated trend. Driven by the price cuts initiated by top-tier enterprises, some enterprises choose to follow suit due to internal and external factors, exacerbating the downward pressure on the market.

Looking ahead, the risk of price declines has not yet been fully released, but the industry's production schedule data for July may bring a turning point. Chinese enterprises' global solar cell production schedule is expected to be 54-55GW, with a MoM decline of over 3%. Although the overall production cut is limited, it is significantly higher than the production cut in the module sector. If the production cut trend continues, coupled with a continued increase in solar cell exports to over 5.5GW, through the dual effects of supply-side contraction and overseas channel diversification, it may gradually alleviate the current supply-demand imbalance and lay the foundation for price stabilization.

3. News Updates

Policy Level:

The National Forestry and Grassland Administration, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), and the National Energy Administration jointly issued the "PV Desertification Control Plan for the Three-North Desert, Gobi, and Barren Areas (2025-2030)," which specifies that by 2030, an additional 253 million kW of PV installations will be added, and 10.1 million mu of desertified land will be treated.

The Shanxi Provincial Energy Administration and the Shanxi Regulatory Office of the National Energy Administration issued a notice on the "Implementation Rules for the Development and Construction Management of Distributed PV Power Generation (Trial)."

On June 29th, the front page of People's Daily published a commentary article by Jin Sheping titled "Achieving High-Quality Development in Breaking Free from 'Cut-throat Competition'," pointing out that "cut-throat competition" undermines industry competitiveness, disrupts the industrial ecosystem, and hinders domestic circulation.

On June 30, the official WeChat account of the China Photovoltaic Industry Association (CPIA) published an article titled "Final Decision! Breaking the 'Price War' with a Three-Pronged Approach: Government Guidance, Industry Self-Discipline, and Corporate Transformation."

On July 1, the Sixth Meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Affairs Commission pointed out that "enterprises should be regulated in accordance with laws and regulations to address low-price and disorderly competition, guiding them to improve product quality and facilitating the orderly exit of outdated production capacity."

On July 1 (local time), the US Senate narrowly passed the "Inflation Reduction Act" (IRA) tax and spending bill, which was strongly advocated by the Trump administration, with a vote of 51-50. This nearly trillion-dollar bill underwent significant adjustments before the final vote. Republicans removed the excise tax provisions for wind and solar projects but maintained the deadline for the full phase-out of clean energy tax credits by the end of 2027. Meanwhile, controversial provisions such as ending EV subsidies and extending nuclear power subsidies were retained. The policy shift triggered sharp market fluctuations, with industry groups warning that it would severely undermine the competitiveness of US clean energy, while the White House declared it a "milestone for US energy independence."

On July 3, Li Lecheng, Secretary of the Party Leadership Group and Minister of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, presided over the 15th Manufacturing Enterprise Symposium. The meeting aimed to thoroughly study and implement the important instructions and spirit of General Secretary Xi Jinping, implement the decisions and arrangements of the Party Central Committee and the State Council, focus on accelerating the high-quality development of the PV industry, and listen to the situation reports, suggestions, and opinions from PV industry enterprises and associations.

Technical Aspects:

On July 1, Risen Energy Co., Ltd. announced that the average mass production power of its Aurora series modules, developed based on its independently innovative n-type heterojunction (HJT) technology platform, had officially exceeded 740Wp, setting a new record for mass production efficiency in the industry. The cell conversion efficiency, certified by an authoritative institution (Fujian Institute of Metrology), reached 26.61%, and was successfully applied in the 740Wp Aurora Pro modules, achieving immediate transfer of R&D results to mass production.

It was learned from Hainan University that the perovskite solar cells independently developed by its New Energy Optoelectronic Materials and Devices Team were certified by the China National PV Industry Metrology and Testing Center to have a steady-state photoelectric conversion efficiency of 27.32%. This value surpassed the 26.95% efficiency record announced by the US National Renewable Energy Laboratory in February this year and the 27.3% industry benchmark value included in Martin Green's solar cell efficiency tables in May, marking Hainan University's entry into the global leading ranks in the third-generation PV technology field.

Corporate Aspects:

UGT Renewables, headquartered in Miami, US, recently announced that it would advance a comprehensive solar project in Iraq with a total installed capacity of up to 3GW!This will not only be Iraq's largest clean energy project to date, but also has the potential to completely transform the country's energy landscape.

Recently, Sichuan Yingfa Ruineng Technology Co., Ltd. officially announced its membership in the United Nations Global Compact (UNGC). This move signifies Yingfa Ruineng's firm commitment to the concept of sustainable development, integrating it deeply into the core of its corporate strategy, and driving a comprehensive upgrade of the PV industry towards high efficiency and low carbon through innovation.

On July 3, Tongwei Co., Ltd. announced that its holding subsidiary, Sichuan Yongxiang Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "Yongxiang"), had completed a strategic capital increase of 4.916 billion yuan, and had introduced 11 strategic investors, including well-known institutions such as ICBC Financial Asset Investment Co., Ltd. and China CITIC Financial Asset Management Co., Ltd.